Herleitung des Bayes-Theorems

Also leiten wir “The Key to the Universe” mal her:

Für ne vollständige Erklärung geht lieber auf Lesswrong.com oder yudkowsky.net.

Das ist rein mathematisch.

Gesucht: P(H/E)

Gegeben: P(H); P(E/H), P(E/non-H)

P(H&E) = P(H/E)*P(E)=P(E/H)*P(H)

-> P(H/E)=P(H&E) / P(E)

->P(H/E)= P(E/H)*P(H) / P(E)

P(E) = P(H&E) + P(Non-H&E)

-> P(H/E) = P(E/H)*P(H) / (P(H&E) + P(Non-H&E) )

-> P(H/E) = P(E/H)*P(H) / ( P(E/H)*P(H)  + P(E/non-H)*P(non-H) )



This entry was posted in Meta. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s