What is true is already so.
Owning up to it doesn’t make it worse.
Not being open about it doesn’t make it go away.
And because it’s true, it is what is there to be interacted with.
Anything untrue isn’t there to be lived.
People can stand what is true,
for they are already enduring it.
— Eugene Gendlin
Kurz gesagt: Prediction markets haben Probleme damit auf Daten möglicher Apokalypsen zu wetten.
Die (unplausible) Unwahrheit sollte Rationalisten verwirren:
Your strength as a rationalist is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you are equally good at explaining any outcome, you have zero knowledge.