69.Update Yourself Incrementally

69.Update Yourself Incrementally

Das Problem mit den meisten Menschen ist, dass sie an binäres, qualitatives, Entweder-Oder Denken gewöhnt sind.

Wahre Theorien können alles erklären. Falsche Theorien können nichts erklären. Doch das stimmt nicht:

The problem with using black-and-white, binary, qualitative reasoning is that any single observation either destroys the theory or it does not.  When not even a single contrary observation is allowed, it creates cognitive dissonance and has to be argued away. And this rules out incremental progress; it rules out correct integration of all the evidence.  Reasoning probabilistically, we realize that on average, a correct theory will generate a greater weight of support than countersupport.  And so you can, without fear, say to yourself:  “This is gently contrary evidence, I will shift my belief downward”.  Yes, down.  It does not destroy your cherished theory.  That is qualitative reasoning; think quantitatively.

Denke quantitativ und kontinuierlich!

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