72. Hindsight Devalues Science

72. Hindsight Devalues Science

Journalisten halten sich natürlich für überaus clever:

Cullen Murphy, editor of The Atlantic, said that the social sciences turn up “no ideas or conclusions that can’t be found in [any] encyclopedia of quotations… Day after day social scientists go out into the world.  Day after day they discover that people’s behavior is pretty much what you’d expect.”

Journalisten bieten immer wieder ein gutes Beispiel für das Böse für den Dunning-Kruger-Effekt. Naja, weiter im Text:

The historian Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. dismissed scientific studies of WWII soldiers’ experiences as “ponderous demonstrations” of common sense.  For example:

  1. Better educated soldiers suffered more adjustment problems than less educated soldiers. (Intellectuals were less prepared for battle stresses than street-smart people.)
  2. Southern soldiers coped better with the hot South Sea Island climate than Northern soldiers. (Southerners are more accustomed to hot weather.)
  3. White privates were more eager to be promoted to noncommissioned officers than Black privates. (Years of oppression take a toll on achievement motivation.)
  4. Southern Blacks preferred Southern to Northern White officers (because Southern officers were more experienced and skilled in interacting with Blacks).
  5. As long as the fighting continued, soldiers were more eager to return home than after the war ended. (During the fighting, soldiers knew they were in mortal danger.)

Es stimmt, die meisten dieser Sachen sind offensichtlich richtig, doch wir hätten uns ihrer nicht sicher sein können. Glaubt ihr wirklich, dass ihr alle 5 Punkte vorhersagen hättet können? Seid ihr sicher, dass ihr euch nicht einmal bei einem Punkt geirrt haben hättet können?

Ach ja, die obigen Punkte sind alle falsch. Ich hoffe, dass macht den Rückschaufehler deutlich.


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