118. A Rational Argument; 119.We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think

118. A Rational Argument

Wir wissen es bereits: Ein rationales Argument, muss von den Indizien ausgehen, und darf sie nicht filtern und selektieren um eine bereits feststehende Konklusion zu untermauern.

119. We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think

“Over the past few years, we have discreetly approached colleagues faced with a choice between job offers, and asked them to estimate the probability that they will choose one job over another.  The average confidence in the predicted choice was a modest 66%, but only 1 of the 24 respondents chose the option to which he or she initially assigned a lower probability, yielding an overall accuracy rate of 96%.”
— Dale Griffin and Amos Tversky, “The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence.”

Das bedeutet: Sobald wir auch nur geringfügig ein Sache oder Entscheidung favorisieren, ihr sagen wir mal nur 60% zuweisen, ist es fast sicher, dass wir sie auch wählen oder ausführen werden.

Wir ändern unsere Meinung seltener als wir denken!

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