Category Archives: AI-Foom debate

AI Foom Debate: Probability Estimates

[Epistemic note: This is an old post and so not necessarily accurate anymore.] I list some facts that need to be true in order for AI FOOM to be possible. I also add my estimates of how probable these statements … Continue reading

Posted in AGI, AI-Foom debate, existential risks, FAI, Fundamentals, Inside View vs. Outside View, intelligence explosion, Personal, singularity | 1 Comment

AI Foom Debate Postscript: Post 53 – 54

53. We Agree: Get Froze (Hanson) 54. You Only Live Twice (Yudkowsky) Both posts argue that not signing up for cryonics is pretty stupid. I agree to a large degree. Most people reject cryonics only due to the absurdity heuristic … Continue reading

Posted in AI-Foom debate, cryonics, Lesswrong Zusammenfassungen | Leave a comment

AI Foom Debate Conclusion: Post 50 – 52

50. What Core Argument? (Hanson) Hanson asks again for Yudkowsky’s core argument(s) and lists his objections. Firstly, it must be said that most AI-researchers and growth-economists consider Yudkowksy’s Foom-scenario to be very unlikely. Which of course doesn’t mean much if … Continue reading

Posted in AGI, AI-Foom debate, CEV, FAI, Fundamentals, Inside View vs. Outside View, intelligence explosion, Lesswrong Zusammenfassungen, meta-ethics, singularity, singularity strategies | Leave a comment

AI Foom Debate: Post 46 – 49

46. Disjunctions, Antipredictions, Etc. (Yudkowsky) First, a good illustration of the conjunction bias by Robyn Dawes: “In their summations lawyers avoid arguing from disjunctions in favor of conjunctions.  (There are not many closing arguments that end, “Either the defendant was … Continue reading

Posted in AGI, AI-Foom debate, CEV, FAI, Fundamentals, intelligence explosion, Lesswrong Zusammenfassungen, singularity | Leave a comment

AI Foom Debate: Post 41 – 45

41. Shared AI Wins (Hanson) Hanson thinks Yudkowsky’s theories about AI-design are pipe-dreams: The idea that you could create human level intelligence by just feeding raw data into the right math-inspired architecture is pure fantasy.  You couldn’t build an effective … Continue reading

Posted in AGI, AI-Foom debate, CEV, existential risks, FAI, Fundamentals, Inside View vs. Outside View, intelligence explosion, Lesswrong Zusammenfassungen, singularity | Leave a comment

AI Foom Debate: Post 35 – 40

35. Underconstrained Abstractions (Yudkowsky) Yudkowsky replies to Hanson’s post “Test Near, Apply Far”. When possible, I try to talk in concepts that can be verified with respect to existing history. …But in my book this is just one trick in … Continue reading

Posted in AGI, AI-Foom debate, CEV, existential risks, FAI, Fundamentals, intelligence explosion, Lesswrong Zusammenfassungen, singularity | Leave a comment

AI Foom Debate: Post 32 – 34

32. Hard Takeoff (Yudkowsky) Natural selection produced roughly linear improvements in human brains. Unmodified human brains produced roughly exponential improvements in knowledge on the object level (bridges, planes, cars, etc ). So it’s unlikely that with the advent of recursively … Continue reading

Posted in AGI, AI-Foom debate, CEV, existential risks, FAI, Fundamentals, Lesswrong Zusammenfassungen, singularity | Leave a comment

AI Foom Debate: Post 29 – 31

29. I Heart CYC (Hanson) Hanson endorses CYC, an AI-project headed by Doug Lenat, the inventor of EURISKO. The lesson Lenat took from EURISKO is that architecture is overrated;  AIs learn slowly now mainly because they know so little.  So … Continue reading

Posted in AGI, AI-Foom debate, existential risks, FAI, Lesswrong Zusammenfassungen, singularity | Leave a comment

AI Foom Debate: Post 23 – 28

23. Total Nano Domination (Yudkowsky) What happens when nanotechnology or WBE become possible? …the real point of this essay is to illustrate a point more important than nanotechnology: as optimizers become more self-swallowing, races between them are more unstable. Meaning, … Continue reading

Posted in AGI, AI-Foom debate, CEV, existential risks, FAI, Fundamentals, Inside View vs. Outside View, intelligence explosion, Lesswrong Zusammenfassungen, singularity, singularity strategies | Leave a comment

AI Foom Debate: Post 20 – 22

20. …Recursion, Magic (Yudkowsky) Recursion is probably the most difficult part of this topic.  We have historical records aplenty of cascades, even if untangling the causality is difficult.  Cycles of reinvestment are the heartbeat of the modern economy.  An insight … Continue reading

Posted in AGI, AI-Foom debate, FAI, intelligence explosion, Lesswrong Zusammenfassungen, singularity | Leave a comment